In the newly released review of the Bulgarian economy (2003 - 2010) ELANA Trading analysts give a macroeconomic snapshot of the country and also add a focus on Greek contagion. Analysts prove lack of negative impact on the local economy reviewing the situation with Greek-owned banks, tourism and export.
The research report claims expectations for further contraction in construction activity in 2010 due to the tight credit conditions and the decline of personal income. However, investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy will ensure the above average growth of the construction sector for the near future. Total investments in Bulgarian economy will see reduction of 10% more in 2010 after the 2009 decrease of 28%.
ELANA Trading analysts forecast lower budget deficit as government spending will finally be cut off. The decrease of spending should be sizable and sudden, as the government will finally realize that consumer demand will remain subdued during 2010.However, the budget problems of Bulgaria are greatly exaggerated. First, the deficit is due to the sudden decrease of VAT revenues and was not consequence of huge anti-crisis spending rush. The second reason is the low debt-to-GDP ratio of Bulgaria, which will ensure reasonable financing through bonds if needed.
Go to research report page